Note: This was originally written by me in 1987, as one of two essays submitted for the Honeywell Futurist Awards, an essay-writing competition sponsored by the Honeywell corporation. It was one of ten winning submissions that year.
The potential impact of the invention of the computer on society has been likened to that of the invention of agriculture and the steam engine. Certainly, since the first stored-program electronic computer was proposed by John von Neumann in 1945, rapid technological advances and a huge variety of applications have caused the use of computers to spread throughout society.
The developments in computer science over the next 25 years will continue to increase the speed, quantity, and quality of information generation, manipulation, and transmission. This means that more and more people will be able to access more and more useful information of all kinds, at higher and higher speeds. Machines that use information will dramatically improve their performance and productivity. And the creation of new information and knowledge will be accelerated.
These effects will bring about still others. Some will be highly visible, but in 2012, as in 1987, most will be subtle and indirect. There will be many applications in which the computer technology will not be visible to the beneficiaries of it, or even to the person directly using it.
Of the applications which will be visible, one of the most prominent will be a dramatic increase in the speed and ease with which the individual can access a given piece of information. By 2012, anyone with a portable computer will probably be able to access a network linking all the world’s electronically stored information, from anywhere within reach of radio waves. Information retrieval aids built into the system will enable the user to quickly burrow through this mountain of data to any desired piece. The societal impacts of this will probably be an acceleration in the creation of intellectual products such as books, scientific research papers, engineering designs, and of course, computer programs.
Obviously, it will not only be static bodies of information which one will have improved access to, but dynamic, interactive sources of information as well: other people and “intelligent” computers–ones able to understand and produce natural language sentences. By 2012, communications networks among individuals and intelligent computers will have increased the speed at which ideas are disseminated to those who can make the best use of them. Friendships will form among people who otherwise might never have met. Contrary to grim forecasts of people isolated by technology, computers allied with communications technology will continue to increase the amount of meaningful human interaction.
The linking of computer translators to global networks might have profound effects on the level of international understanding, as well as an increase in the rate of technological progress, as scientific and technical information is exchanged more readily. Insightful connections between ideas will probably be made more frequently, quickening the pace of scientific discovery and technological advance in every field. In the medical sector, for example, it will mean more rapid arrival of new drugs, medical technologies and procedures, resulting in longer, healthier lives.
The existence of on-line information scanning, screening and vending of information will increase the effectiveness of individuals, both personally and professionally. Even though individuals will receive information from a far greater variety of sources, they will actually feel less overwhelmed by it than at present. They may actually be receiving somewhat less information than they do now, but it will be far more individually useful and satisfying.
It is a paradox that as computers and other technologies become more complex, everyday life for most people will actually become simpler and easier. Electronically retrieving information from libraries in minutes rather than an hour is just one example. Being able to contact and communicate with someone without either of you being anywhere near a corded phone is another. Still another is the increase in the usability of one’s personal library when books and periodicals are stored and indexed electronically–to say nothing of the savings in moving costs and storage space (no more hoarding of old National Geographics). All of these seemingly small benefits will add up, and in 2012, the informational aspects of our lives will run much more smoothly. Individuals will finally feel that they are in control of the information in their lives.
One way advances in computer science will exert powerful societal effects is through manufactured products. Improved designs will move from engineers’ digitizer pads to factories to store shelves at a faster and faster pace. Computer control of manufacturing processes will permit factories to be much more flexible and adaptive, giving the consumer a greater number of options to choose from. Products will be more attractive, safer, more reliable, less expensive and will perform more valuable functions than ever before.
Take the example of automobiles. Computer-aided design and model testing, coupled with robotically-perfect assembly, using advanced materials made possible by research using computers, will result in a superior automobile. In addition, on-board computers will manage fuel use, monitor systems for impending part failure, and help avoid collisions. This will result in a car that is safer, more reliable, more enjoyable and less expensive to operate. Compound this by the millions of automobiles in the United States, extend it to thousands of other manufactured products, and you get some idea of the impact.
All of these improvements in manufacturing products will probably help the United States increase its share of world markets. This of course, will have the effect of increased export sales, and a generally higher domestic standard of living. In any case, advances in automation will definitely continue the trend of the last 100 years: increased productivity resulting in higher levels of personal affluence.
One of the clear societal impacts of advances in computer science is the automation of jobs and the displacement of workers. It seems likely that whatever can be automated at a savings in cost, will be. In the manufacturing sector, the automation of certain jobs will result in the loss of jobs for some workers. But as always happens when technology eliminates some jobs, it creates new ones. For example, there will probably be an increase in jobs devoted to the repair of robots.
The fact that a job may be composed of predominantly mental rather than physical tasks will not make it automation-proof. Jobs such as translator, teacher, office clerk, and librarian will be largely automated in 2012, while jobs such as truck driver and construction worker will still be done by humans. The deciding factor will not be how easy or difficult humans find the job, but how easy it is for computers and robots.
Education is another area in which the societal impact of advances in computer science will be enormous. At the very least, the schools of 2012 will be making heavy use of advanced computer-aided instruction. More likely is that developments in computer science, coupled with communication technologies, will alter the very nature of schools. Students will probably spend only their mornings studying, and this will be done at home using sophisticated adaptive, interactive learning systems. Their afternoons will probably be spent in social interaction in the form of clubs and sports.
Advances in computer science will affect education in yet another way. As the retrieval of more and more specific information from larger and larger collections of data becomes faster and faster, it will gradually become obvious that it is unwise for large numbers of children to undergo the costly process of committing an excessive amount of narrow, detailed information to memory. New emphasis will be given to teaching the broad fundamentals in every subject, while specializing in only a few. There will also be more emphasis on teaching widely-applicable skills, such as problem-solving, researching, and decision-making.
The effect of all these developments will probably be a dramatic increase in both the quantity and quality of the information learned by students, increasing their general competence and mental effectiveness. This will have many benefits for the country at large, through a better-educated electorate, more competent workers, and more knowledgeable and effective citizens.
The people of 2012 will be well-accustomed to living in an “intelligent environment”–that is, one in which computer-controlled devices are ubiquitous. They will not be surprised if, for example, a car asks them a question, and they will expect to be able to get whatever information they need, wherever they might be, whenever they need it. They will come to expect well-designed, user-friendly interfaces that explain themselves to the novice user. As computers and computer-controlled devices become more and more common, and as the population ages, there will probably be less “computer phobia” and a generally warmer regard for the devices.
The advent of computers which clearly demonstrate intelligent and creative behavior will probably be disturbing to some people, at least initially, as still more of the attributes thought to be unique to humans are given up. However, I predict that people will quickly grow accustomed to these machines. It will be hard not too like such endlessly courteous, enormously helpful, eager-to-serve devices.
Of all the possible developments in computer science, none has the potential for a greater societal impact than the creation of a computer aware of itself. It would force humans to abandon their claim to consciousness as a unique human attribute. It would force psychologists and philosophers to reconsider their ideas about mind, intelligence, thinking, learning, personality, and identity. It would force legal theorists to decide if computers have rights. It would probably cause many people to conclude that there is no fundamental difference between an artificial mind and a human one–that they are both fundamentally machines. And it would force religious leaders to wrestle with the question of whether or not a machine may possess a soul.
It may not happen in only twenty five years, but by 2012, it will certainly be visible on the horizon.